這是一篇去年底關注小熊農場專欄作家所寫的文章，這幾年隨著小熊農場越來越肥沃，沒
有突出表現的陳品捷受到球團的期待逐漸降低，很難得還能看到特別針對他寫了一篇不算
短的文章，在這邊翻譯分享給各位。
簡單來講，作者認為陳品捷打擊普通、速度普通、power不足、守備OK，要立足大聯盟有難
度，覺得最多就是個五號外野手。不過他的選球極好，會是他最大的優勢。
很多人拿他和今年返台的林哲瑄比較，型態確實有些類似，都是選球好、power不夠好，到
高階會比較辛苦，而且陳的守備和速度都略遜林一籌，比較有優勢的地方是左打，以及小
聯盟生涯高出將近.020的打擊率。
Chicago Cubs Prospects Progress: Pin-Chieh Chen
in Cubs Minor Leagues and Prospects
by Luke Blaize December 22, 2014
http://0rz.tw/bDaiN
The Cubs currently possess a near historic collection of incredibly good
young hitters across the major and minor league levels, and a lot of words
have been written about those guys already. This will not be one of those
articles. Pin-Chieh Chen is not one of the Cubs’ elite prospects. He isn’t
one of their Top Twenty prospects. He probably won’t be one of their Top
Forty prospects (although that remains to be seen). Some, in fact, would
argue that he isn’t a prospect at all.
小熊農場目前十分肥沃，很多文章都特別寫一些頗受期待的新秀。這篇文章卻不是如此，
要寫的是陳品捷。他不是小熊農場中頂尖的球員、也不是隊上的前20新秀，甚至也不會是
前40新秀；甚至有人覺得他根本稱不上Prospect。
But not me. Fringey? Yes. Unlikely to make the majors? Yes. Probably a career
minor leaguer at best? Yes. Potential 2016 Chicago Cub? Maybe. It is a slim,
faint maybe, but it is a maybe. This edition of Prospects Progress will focus
on that maybe.
但我不這麼認為。很有可能上不了大聯盟？是的。很有可能一輩子都是個小聯盟球員？是
的。2016年升上小熊大聯盟？或許，這是個非常小的機會，但只少是個可能，這篇文章會
特別專注描寫為什麼「可能」。
If you’re new to Prospects Progress, this is an annual offseason series that
focuses on players at all levels of the minors. Each article will take one
prospect … maybe a big name you instantly recognize, and maybe a fringe guy
you haven’t heard of … and will spend some time looking at his numbers, his
risk factors, and how he projects to fit into the Cubs’ future.
如果你對新秀進展這件事情還不太熟悉，這大概就是每年在休賽季時評估每個新秀在各層
級的表現。每篇文章會寫一個新秀，或許是個已經家喻戶曉的球員，也或許是個你從來沒
聽過的邊緣球員，文章將會從他的數字出發、分析他的風險，以及他未來在球隊中的定位
。
In a system that is becoming known for sluggers, Chen simply isn’t. Over
five minor league seasons dating back to 2015 he has a grand total of six
career home runs, and not one of them was hit in 2014. His ISO will blip
above .100 every now and then, but for much of his career he’s been hanging
out around .080. If you are looking for a power bat, you are looking in the
wrong place.
在小熊這個充滿長打好手的體系中，陳完全不是其中的一員。在他五個小聯盟球季中，僅
僅擊出了6支全壘打，而且去年一支都沒有。他的ISO有時候會在.100以上，不過他的生涯
這個數字大都在.080左右。如果要期待一支大棒子，陳品捷並不是人選。
He isn’t know for his great speed, either. He put up three seasons with at
least 20 steals in the low minors, including a very nice total of 36 for
Peoria in 2011, but as he has moved into the higher levels of the system
those numbers have fallen off. Between Daytona and Tennessee this past summer
he managed just 13 stolen bases. His seven triples in 2014 indicate that he
is good enough of a base runner to use his speed when the opportunity
presents itself, but this is not the sort of player who is going to make a
living with his legs alone.
他也不是因為速度出名，雖然他在三個球季有20次以上的盜壘成功，包含2011年在低A的
36次，不過盜壘成功的次數也隨著層級升高之後減少：2014年在AA和A+他僅繳出13次盜壘
成功的數據。2014年的7支三壘安打顯示出他仍具有一定的速度，不過他不會是那種只靠
一雙快腿就上大聯盟的料。
He also doesn’t hit for average. His career figure, despite spending most of
that time in A ball, is just .270. He hit .275 in 65 games in the Florida
State League to start the year, and in the pitcher friendly FSL that’s
actually not too bad. It isn’t exactly good either, though, and it
definitely isn’t great. His 2014 Double A figure in 48 games was just just
.232 (more on that in a bit).
他的打擊水準也不到平均水準：他的生涯儘管都在1A層級，打擊率僅有.270。他在2014年
65場在A+繳出.275的成績，考慮到佛羅里達是個投手聯盟，這個成績其實還不錯。不過等
他上了AA，48場比賽中僅繳出.232的打擊率。
So why am I writing about a guy without power, speed, or average? Because he’
s a potentially versatile left handed hitting outfielder who doesn’t strike
out and draws a ton of walks. In other words, he is pretty much exactly the
kind of guy the Cubs would not mind having as the fifth outfielder in the
majors right now.
那為什麼還要特別提一個沒什麼長打能力、速度和打擊不到平均的選手呢？他是個左打外
野手，可以選到很多保送且不容易被三振，這樣的特質正是小熊隊會需要的五號外野手。
Before I dive in here, let me again reiterate that the odds are decidedly not
in the favor of Chen. He doesn’t project as a star, or even as a major
league starter. He really doesn’t project as much of a major league player
outside of a bench role, and the role he could fill could also be filled by a
large number of other players in the Cubs system, not to mention a bunch of
free agents or cheap trade targets. This is a story of maybe, not probably.
必須再提一次，這個可能性對陳來說機率仍不高。他不被期待成為一個明星，甚至不被期
待成為一個大聯盟先發球員，最多就是個板凳球員，但就算是板凳球員，這個位置也很容
易被其他小熊體系內的球員取代，或是從FA、交易市場以便宜的代價得來。這是個關於「
或許」，而不是「大概會」的描述。
That maybe, that chance that he could reach Wrigley as a fourth of fifth
outfielder, centers around his on base abilities. In 48 games (182 plate
appearances) with Tennessee last season, Chen posted a surprisingly strong
OBP of .343 to go with his average of .232. That large gap between his AVG
and OBP is thanks to a 13.2% walk rate. Throughout his minor league career
his walk rates have consistently been over 10.0% at every level. The fact
that he matched his career high at the highest level he has yet reached is
interesting and suggests strongly that Chen has a good understanding of the
strike zone and a strong ability to recognize pitches.
而這個「或許」，最主要就是他的上壘能力。2014年在AA的48場比賽 (182個PA)，他的上
壘率達.343，打擊率則是.232，如此大的差距主因是13.2%的保送率。在小聯盟生涯中，
他在每一個層級的保送率都超過10%，而在AA達到最高的比率顯示出他在高層級仍能有選
球的能力。
He doesn’t miss many pitches, either. His strikeout rate for the Smokies was
just 8.8%, the lowest he has posted in a league where he has had enough plate
appearances to make a useful sample size. And if you’re thinking that a guy
who can post those peripheral numbers should be able to hit for a better
average than .232, you’re probably right.
他同時也不太會被三振，在AA的三振率是8.8%，同時也是生涯新低。如果你覺得這樣的能
力應該可以繳出比打擊率.232好的成績，那你有可能是對的。
Chen’s Double A average of .232 came with a BABIP of .259; that figure is
significantly below the BABIP he has posted at most other levels. Typically
his BABIP sits around .330 or so. Even after we account for the increase in
difficulty that comes with a jump to Double A, I tend to think that .259 is
decidedly on the low side. It isn’t hard to justify projecting bit of a
bounce in BABIP and a corresponding 2015 line that could be closer .260/.350.
去年他在AA的打擊率是.232，BABIP是.259，遠低於他的生涯平均，他的BABIP通常在.330
左右。就算我們考慮到層級上升後提高的難度，.259仍然是偏低的數字，可以期待他在
2015繳出BAA/OBP .260/.350的數據。
譯按：陳品捷本季在AA的BABIP果然上升到.303，BAA/OBP則是.247/.354，都滿接近。
Even with a high minors OBP of .350, though, there is really only one
scenario in which a profile like Chen’s would fit as even a fifth outfielder
on a competitive major league team. It comes down to the glove.
就算到高層級繳出.350的上壘率，仍就需要好的守備能力才有一拼第五號外野手的機會。
For a light hitting walks machine to hold a major league bench job, he just
about has to be solid defensively across the outfield. There are signs that
point to Chen fitting that profile, but right now that is unclear.
一個沒什麼長打能力的上壘機器要搶下大聯盟的板凳工作，他的外野守備必須要很好，目
前看起來他的守備卻是不錯，但仍不是十分明確。
Chen played a lot of center field in the low minors, but over the past two
seasons he has primarily been in the corners – mainly left field in 2013,
and mainly right field in 2014. I don’t think he has moved to the corners
because he is bad at center field, though, so much as that he has been
playing along side some pretty good center fielders. In 2014, for example,
the center fielder he played alongside for most of his time at both levels
was Albert Almora, one of the best defensive outfielders in minor league
baseball. If Almora and pretty much anyone else in the farm system are
playing in the same outfield, Almora will get the majority of the starts in
center. That doesn’t mean the other guy is bad at center, though.
在低層級時，他通常站CF，但是在過去兩年都被丟到角落，2013年大多守LF、2014年大多
守RF。我不認為他是因為守備不好才被移到角落，而是和他的同隊的CF都是非常棒的CF。
以2014年來說，他和Albert Almora同隊，Almora被評為有小聯盟中頂尖的防守能力，所
以和Almora同隊的其他外野手就必須要移動守備位置，但這並不代表他們的防守就不好。
It does mean we can’t be sure. My only real not-a-scout concern, having
watched Chen in the outfield a few times, is his arm, but the fact that he
spent much of 2014 in right field is an indicator that his arm should be good
enough for center. Whether or not his overall defense is good enough to
profile as a light hitting defensive replacement bench guy in the majors
remains to be seen, but I don’t think we can rule it out.
不過這同時也代表我們不能肯定。現場看過陳的幾場比賽，我比較有疑慮的是他的臂力，
不過他在2014年守RF，或許也代表他的臂力是能夠應付CF的工作。他能不能成為一個大聯
盟替補外野手的機率雖然還不明確，但我不認為現在就能說不行。
Chen should begin 2015 back with the Tennessee Smokies, and in all honesty I
am not sure he goes any higher. I love the strikeout rate. I love the walk
rate. I think the glove could be good enough, although I’m not sure on that.
The problem is just how light of a hitter Chen is. If he busts out with an
ISO in the .140 range in Double A to start the season this may look
different, but short of that I’m not sure there will be enough life in his
bat to beat out all of the other options the Cubs will have for that last
outfield slot. Fifth outfielders are cheaper if developed from within, but
they don’t tend to be terribly expensive if they are signed from without.
預計陳在2015年會回到AA，老實說我也不確定他會不會再往上升。我喜歡他的SO、BB比率
，我認為他的守備也夠好，但也不是那麼確定。比較大的問題是他的長打能力，如果他開
季能打出.140左右的ISO或許事情就不太一樣，但如果低於這個數據，就會有更多潛在競
爭者。雖然五號外野手從自己體系出來比較便宜，但其實就外取材也不會太貴。
譯按：真的很可惜，陳品捷開季在AA打擊狀況不錯，留下了生涯新高.144的ISO，後來卻因
為清位子給超級新秀Billy McKinney而被放回A+。
That said, he does have a chance. And, personally, while the bigger names and
more elite tools tend to deservedly get most of the time in the spotlight, I
find the stories of those prospects on fringe, prospects like Chen, to be
nearly as interesting. These guys are a integral part of what makes minor
league baseball the awesome experience that it is, and every once in awhile
one of them bucks the odds and takes a place in the spotlight. Could Chen be
one of those surprise breakout guys? Maybe.
總而言之，他仍有機會。同時間天份更高、表現更好的球員更受重視，我認為像陳這種球
員的故事也十分有趣。這種球員讓大聯盟是個更好的地方，而他們一旦破繭而出也會是很
棒的故事。陳品捷會是這種傢伙嗎？讓我們拭目以待吧！