COVID-19 Update: OECD revises global economic outlook;
Summit of the Americas latest trade show to be cancelled
by The Moodie Davitt Report News Room
3 March 2020
https://reurl.cc/1xjz2G
我會節錄只跟航空有關及最新資料，原文請自行參照網址。
Announcing its results for 2019, Vienna Airport has said there is "high
uncertainty" on how much COVID-19 will impact its 2020 performance.
維也納機場對於 COVID-19 影響自己 2020 的營運狀況表示很難確認。
"A better assessment will be possible in four to six weeks," he added. "A
cost-cutting package to safeguard earnings will be introduced nevertheless.
From a historic point of view, such external shocks have only resulted in a
temporary reduction of growth."
四到六週後會有比較好的評定，但無論如何一定會有個為了維持營運而降低開銷的腹案。
依照歷史來看，這些外部的緊急狀況通常會造成暫時的成長萎縮。
The latest data from flight analyser OAG shows that global scheduled airline
seat capacity from January to April has fallen by 40.8 million compared to
the same period last year.
跟去年比較，一至四月的座位數供給數少了四千零八十萬個。
Chinese carriers have added 2.9 million scheduled seats (18,200 flights) back
into the mainland's domestic market, positive news from an industry
viewpoint. On the other hand, capacity to and from South Korea and Hong Kong
continues to decline. In Europe, capacity has fallen in northern Italy but
airlines are continuing to adjust their schedules, so this trend may yet
accelerate.
中國航空業有增加了一些國內座位 (290W) 需求回來，但南韓與香港的數字持續探低。
歐洲部分北義的狀況造成了一些供給降低，但航空公司還在不斷的修正班表，所以未必會
造成更大的異動。
https://www.moodiedavittreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OAG-mar-1.png
Of the 2.9 million scheduled seats returning to the Chinese market (week
commencing 2 March), all but 3,000 are on domestic services, led by China
Southern Airlines and China Eastern. OAG said that the dramatic capacity
recovery has led to low fares being made available as the Chinese government
seeks to ensure people can return home after the extended Lunar New Year
break.
南航與東航增加的 290W 座位數只有 3000 個是非國內線的。
但是這些航班是為了讓國內的乘客能夠在持續延長放假的春節後回家，票價十分低廉。
Against this, South Korea has seen a -21% reduction in capacity and Hong Kong
(SAR) a -22% slide; since 20 January, capacity has fallen by -71% in the Hong
Kong market alone.
就算中國座位數增加了，南韓 (-21%) 跟香港的座位供給數 (-71%) 下降也相對抵銷了。
https://www.moodiedavittreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OAG-mar-2.png
這張表的供給數有提到臺灣 (CT)，從 1/20 的 919,617 一路下滑到 3/2 的 426,408。
如果拿這兩個數字來看，等於過了一個多月供給下降了 ~53.6%。
澳門的數字則是從 142,121 >> 34,495，也少了約七成六的運能。
OAG noted that Japan has been partially insulated by its strong domestic
market. ANA's capacity is down by -2.7% since 20 January and JAL by -5.3%
with minimal change in the last week. However, it said, for Cathay Pacific,
Korean Air, Asiana and Eva Airways further capacity cuts of more than -20% in
the last week reflect the severity of the situation being faced on a regional
那日本因為有強勁的國內線做支撐，安娜跟架魯的座位供給分別只降了 2.7% 及 5.3%。
但國泰、大韓、韓亞跟長榮在過去的一星期都砍了約 20% 的運能。
編按：不過座位供給數並不等同實際乘載量。
In southeast Asia, the potential impact of COVID-19 on Indonesia – which
reported its first case this week – has yet to be played out. Lion Air,
Citilink Indonesia and Batik Air all added capacity in the last seven weeks.
Elsewhere, Singapore Airlines cut capacity by another -5% this week, and by
-12.5% since 20 January.
東南亞區域目前在印尼的狀況尚未明朗，這星期才爆了第一起案例。獅航及其他的印尼籍
航空公司甚至在過去的七週內持續增加航班座位數。鄰近的新航則是這星期再砍了 5% 運
能，資料顯示自 1/20 以來已經砍了約 12.5%。
"Looking specifically at capacity from Milan this week shows a reduction of
some 25,500 seats across the four major airports with represents a -5%
reduction in capacity."
歐洲目前狀況看起來是還好，但就針對米蘭，區域的四座機場也少了約 25.5K 的座位數
，也就是大約 5% 的運能。
The total number of visitor arrivals in Hong Kong fell -52.7% year-on-year in
January to 3,207,802. Visitors from Mainland China were down -54.2% compared
to January 2019 at 2,536,768 and non-Mainland visitors dropped -46%
year-on-year at 671,034.
香港訪客去年跟今年比較大概少了約 320W (-52.7%) 人次，其中中國訪客少了約 253W
(-54.2%) 人次，其他訪客則是約 67W (-46%)。
其中統計數有非常詳細的資料，圖檔連結太長請自行移駕觀看。
臺灣訪客少了 46.0% (短程市場市佔最多)
日本訪客少了 62.2%
南韓訪客少了 77.7%
美國訪客少了 35.0% (長程市場市佔最多)
澳洲訪客少了 35.5%
編按：香港旅客減少數量應該不單單只是肺炎的問題。
2 March
British Airways has told The Moodie Davitt Report it is reducing its
transatlantic and European service from 16-28 March in the wake of reduced
demand.
英航打算在三月中減少部分大西洋 (-12 班紐約) 跟歐洲內陸航班 (-194)。
One of the world's leading airport food & beverage operators, SSP Group, has
warned COVID-19 will have reduced overall group revenue for February by
between ￡10 million (US$12.58 million) and ￡12 million ($15.1 million).
The company added that operating profit for the month was likely to be
reduced by between ￡4 million (US$5.03 million) and ￡5 million (US$6.29
million).
其中一間專門做機場餐飲的 SSP 集團表示 COVID-19 將會減少二月的營收大約一千到一千
兩百萬英鎊 (大約 3.8 到 4.6E NTD)，利潤則是會減少四五百萬英鎊 (大約 1500-1900W
NTD)。
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has urged aviation
regulators worldwide to suspend the rules governing use of airport slots for
the 2020 season, due to the impact of COVID-19.
國際民航組織表示希望一些時間帶緊繃的機場因應 COVID-19 暫時凍結時間帶使用規定。
IAG, owner of British Airways, Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus, is the latest
major airline group to warn about its business outlook as a result of
COVID-19. It said that cancellations related to the outbreak would reduce
flight capacity by 1-2% for the year.
IAG 集團示警將因 COVID-19 取消旗下航空公司今年約 1-2% 的運能。