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WTPN21 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TR
OPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CY
CLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9N 137.6E TO 10.0N
132.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMA
TED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 136.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEA
R 7.1N 137.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF PAL
AU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 240807Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE BOTH SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL C
IRCULATION (LLC) SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST. 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT
S) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HIGH (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GL
OBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CON
VECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIF
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE R
EISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 250900Z.// NNNN