※ 引述《searoar (暗坑大豆)》之銘言：
: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/the-royals-and-the-case-for-defense
: 很多東西說幾百遍(從冬天)就不全翻了，另外這篇只講數據
: 看之前請默唸"無形價值"十遍..
: The Royals and the Case for Defense
: ... I won’t harp on the fact that Myers is tearing it up in Tampa Bay and
: has been worth nearly as much, by wins above replacement (WAR), in 49 games
: as Shields has been all season (2.0 for Myers to 2.5 for Shields).
: At this pace, Myers would easily have been more valuable this season for the
: Royals than Shields has been, and even if his pace slows down, the upgrade
: from Jeff Francouer to Wil Myers is bigger than the upgrade from the
: available free agents to James Shields. And that’s only this season and
: doesn’t even consider the long term cost of losing Myers for 2015 and beyond.
: Myers打半季的成績已經快追上 Shields了
: 從個別位置來看 Myers - Francouer > Shields - other FAs
: 換言之，挖的洞比補的洞大，這還不考慮未來的狀況
: But leaving that all aside, the Royals needed a bat more than they needed
: pitching. Entering Sunday they stand 12% below league average using a catch
: all offensive statistic called weighted runs created plus (wRC+), which puts
: them 12th in the American League. The Royals management misjudged their team.
: They did not have a surplus offensive talent and a dearth of pitching options.
: 皇家誤判情勢，打擊沒有多餘的深度足以拿出來交易，而且沒有其他投手選擇
: More importantly still, and the focus here, is that the Royals haven’t
: pitched that much better in 2013 than they did in 2012. They didn’t make a
: big upgrade on the mound, even if they’re allowing fewer runs. They’ve only
: improved marginally.
: 洞補的夠好嗎，其實只有進步一些
: ...Last year they ranked 7th in the AL in pitcher WAR. This year they’re 6th.
: 列了一些數據(略)，從投手WAR來看，在美聯進步一名
: But their ERA has dropped from 4.30 to 3.50. Nearly a full run. If you prefer
: to look at all runs, allowed, the story is the same at 4.62 and 3.80 from
: 2012 to 2013. The Royals are giving up fewer runs but only pitching a little
: bit better.
: 失分比去年下降很多，這是讓某些人覺得補對的迷思
: The answer is so obvious that it’s easy to miss. The Royals are playing
: dramatically better defense. Trading Wil Myers for James Shields isn’t why
: they’re giving up fewer runs. They’re giving up fewer runs because the
: defense is turning batted balls into outs much more efficiently in 2013 than
: they did in 2012.
: 真正的原因在於皇家的防守大幅進步
: Defensive statistics aren’t perfect, but when the two leading numbers are
: telling you almost the exact same thing, it’s wise to listen. The Royals
: have made huge defensive gains in 2013 and it’s responsible for nearly all
: of their progress in the standings. They are currently 9 games better in the
: standings than they were through 122 games last season. Defense accounts for
: nearly all of that and they’re still out of playoff position.
: UZR說皇家靠防守多贏了7場，DRS說多贏了6場，而他們現在比去年多贏了9場
: The Royals are doing an excellent job preventing runs this season, but it’s
: not because of some terrific improvement in their pitching staff. Their
: hurlers are better, but only marginally so. The big difference is their much
: improved defense. Last season the Royals pitchers gave up more runs than
: their FIP suggested they should and this year they lead the AL with an ERA
: that is 0.40 runs better than their FIP. The key to the Royals’ success is
: an amazing defense, not an improved staff. They could have given the ball to
: Kyle Lohse or Ryan Dempster instead of James Shields and the defense would
: still be making all of these great plays. And they’d still have Myers
: slugging .503.
: 去年 FIP> ERA，今年 ERA則比 FIP少了0.4分
: 你可以簽肉絲或是蛋皮，防守可以罩他們就像罩 Shields一樣
: 然後還有 Myers在手上
: The Royals are first in baseball in UZR and only trail the Diamondbacks in
: DRS. This is one of the best defensive teams in the league and it’s a big
: reason why they’re winning. They could be preventing runs this well even
: without James Shields and they could be doing it while scoring more thanks to
: Myers who, ironically, could end up being the difference between the Rays
: making the playoffs and the Royals missing out.
: 減少失分是皇家今年進步的關鍵，投手幫了一點點忙，主要來自於防守
: 沒有 Shields他們一樣可以做到，如果 Myers還在還能多拿一些分數
各位鍵盤學長 請容許小弟我問幾個簡單的問題 再來評估換Shields該不該做
1. G7 in WS或是外卡驟死賽 你手中的排是Shields Lohse or Dempster 你要誰上?
摸著良心阿
2. 假設你球隊開季rotation長這樣
no.1
no.2 Santana
No.3 Guthrie
no.4
no.5 KC曹錦輝
就算你一直喊 絕對沒有黑畫面
這種陣容擺明了每打五天先輸三場 還不保證你有投手可以把1跟4那兩場局數吃完
你怎辦?
想想你去年隊上ERA最好的sp是KC曹錦輝???
3. 假設你是FA投手 30中了 想要撈一張最後一年約 也想順便拼拼看有沒機會撈戒指
你會去有情有義有粉味的東岸強權 投的鳥鳥的還有隊有掩護 炸雞啤酒也無限供應
還是去中西部窮鄉僻壤 錢不一定給的比較多 但是已知連輸10幾年了
你去哪?
KC在FA爭奪上 是有很大優勢逆?
FA可能簽的比人貴人家還不一定要來 你換不換?
4. 既然有人提到Dempster Lohse那我們們看看
Dempster 到今天4.77era 1.47 whip 36歲
Shields 3.19 1.27 32歲 誰優?
有人會說 Dempster在美東 好吧 那去年他在TEX ERA破5
Lohse看起來很不錯 但別忘了 他在比較_的聯盟
他在MIN那幾年 ERA沒有低於4!
也許隨著年齡增長啦 blahblah 他現在回美聯會比較好 but who knows
但要是我是GM 有個proven winner big game pitcher 我為啥要簽比較老的浪人?
不要再來Lohse Dempster了
再我看來 KC要Shields是覺得他們可以換到一個Appier 而不是再去簽一個Cil Meche
5. 文章說到 KC今年靠防守贏了6-7場 而他們今年目前只比去年多贏了9場
先不要說防守數據我覺得可改進度跟WAR大概不相上下
就算照原文 作者的其中一個重要論證是
利用UZR跟DRS 一個比較偏電腦衍算法一個用人工評斷的守備數據
來說明守備比起去年 幫"整個"投手群多守了很多分
所以投手的補強相對不是關鍵blahblah
但別忘了 我們要看的是 補了Shields以後 比起"去年這個位置上的人" 他能有多大提升
我們不會真的相信補了Shields
其他人像Guthrie就有能力加乘 KC曹錦輝就變成KC韋蘭德吧
所以你老兄拿原文作者提到的守備幫"整隊pitching staff"守下很多分
想要來說明 補強Shields沒多大效應跟KC成績進步不大相干 好像不是個很好的方法
我相信KC防守救了投手不少
但 假設那些防守剛好幫到Santana Guthrie比較多? 看看Santana這兩年成績?
拿這個來論Shields到底有沒有補的好 好像有點鳥XD
真要來比較 一個不是最好的方法 但再下覺得比上面這方法好的
Shields進來補的位置 應該就是去年Hochevar那個no.1 sp的位置
你要算成J Sanchez也可以
這兩個人去年整年度quality starts總共有13+1=14場
但到今年為止 Shields已經有20場了 AL第一
也許可以看成 球季沒打完 補強Shields比起沒補強 已經多給球隊6場機會贏球了
要是算一整季 補強Shields比起沒補強 可能可以多11場QS 多11場贏球的機會
(KC組織內也沒人可以補上這個洞)
這巨不巨大?
91勝跟80勝?
另外給Hector
Peter Gammons的確很常關注除了紅襪以外的球隊
他是紅襪迷 但是他資格老 所以圈內小道消息多
但這篇是Neil Weinberg的文章 不是Gammons
這篇風格一看就跟他的文章不同
Gammons不是數據派 他文章大多也不是從否定一個人切入
他會先blah這是個美好的球季 有誰表現好 某隊有誰又表現出啥talent更不用說還有誰
然後再來一些他的小道消息
業內小道消息可讀可信度又比較高的
除了他大概就是真正幹過gm人脈廣 真的是很多gm學長的Jim Bowden
最後 請問各位鍵盤學長
大家是看過幾場Myers比賽 看過他幾個打席? 對他的預期成績大概是怎樣?
對他的pitch selection跟攻擊低球的能力有沒有興趣研究?
還是看看BA FB選了一下爽了一陣子就將?
假設他長成Longoria 換Shields
假設他成績比較像Josh Willingham 換Shields?
假設他成績比較像Hunter Pence 換Shields?
假設他成績比較像Hank Blalock 換Shields?