[轉錄] 經濟學人預測台灣武肺疫苗施打世界前段班

作者: goldenfire (金)   2021-02-12 11:29:52
1.轉錄網址︰
※ 網址超過一行 請縮網址 ※
經濟學人智庫報告
https://reurl.cc/MZXG94
雜誌新聞:
https://reurl.cc/Xe59pe
2.轉錄來源︰
※ FB公眾人物、FB粉絲團名稱、其他來源 ※
經濟學人
3.轉錄內容︰
※ 請完整轉載原文 請勿修改內文與編排 ※
媒體完整報導要加入會員,所以就只轉貼智庫報告了
至於報告的細節也要付費就是
https://imgur.com/SR3isNG
(本圖重點:台灣世界最快打完疫苗的國家之一,預計今年底之前)
The rollout of vaccines against the coronavirus (Covid-19) has started in
developed countries, but mass immunisation will take time.
Production represents the main hurdle, as many developed countries have
pre-ordered more doses than they need.
The costs associated with mass immunisation programmes will be significant,
especially for less-developed countries that have limited fiscal resources.
Vaccine diplomacy will play a role in determining which countries get access
to a vaccine in the coming months.
Russia and China will use the rollout of their own coronavirus shots to
advance their interests.
With priority groups vaccinated in rich economies by end-March, The EIU
expects global economic prospects to brighten from mid-2021.
For most middle-income countries, including China and India, the vaccination
timeline will stretch to late 2022.
In poorer economies, widespread vaccination coverage will not be achieved
before 2023, if at all.
In early 2021 three vaccines, from Pfizer (US)-BioNTech (Germany), Moderna
(US) and AstraZeneca-Oxford University (UK), will be rolled out on a massive
scale in developed countries. Meanwhile, Chinese and Russian vaccines are
being rolled out both domestically and to emerging countries such as Egypt,
via diplomatic bilateral deals. This will foster so-called vaccine diplomacy—
with Russia and China trying to bolster their global status via the delivery
of vaccines—this year and beyond.
Countries at the front of the queue—including the UK, the US and most
countries in the EU—are expected to have immunised their priority groups by
end-March, with other wealthy countries catching up by end-June. We therefore
expect that global economic prospects will brighten from mid-2021, with the
global economic rebound gaining speed in the third and fourth quarters.
However, life will not be back to normal by then, as immunisation programmes
for the bulk of the population will continue until mid-2022.
Among middle-income countries, Russia, which has developed its own vaccines,
could be on a similar schedule to richer economies, with mass immunisation
completed by mid-2022. Other middle-income countries, including Mexico and
Brazil, have been promised supplies in return for running clinical trials or
housing production factories. This should give them early access to doses for
priority groups, although their ability to achieve mass vaccination will
depend on other factors including fiscal space, population size, number of
healthcare workers, infrastructure and political will. China and India
represent special cases; both countries have developed their own shots and
are pressing ahead with rollout plans, but the sheer size of their population
means that mass immunisation programmes will stretch until late 2022, in line
with the expected timeline for most middle-income countries.
Finally, some other middle-income countries and most low-income countries
will be relying on COVAX, an initiative led by the WHO that aims to secure
6bn doses of vaccine for poorer countries. The first 2bn of these will be
given in 2021, mainly to healthcare workers (COVAX doses will cover only up
to 20% of the population of each country). However, COVAX supplies may be
slow to arrive, especially if delays in the production for and delivery to
richer countries push back delivery dates for poorer nations. In these
developing countries, widespread vaccination coverage will not be achieved
before 2023, if it happens at all.
Methodology:
This map depicts the latest forecasts from The EIU for the rollout of
coronavirus vaccines, reflecting the time when countries may expect to have
vaccinated the majority (60-70%) of their adult population. Criteria taken
into account include supply deals, production constraints, vaccine hesitancy,
the size of the population, and the availability of healthcare workers. The
data are also adjusted by analysts to reflect specific conditions on the
ground.
“The contrast between rich countries and poorer ones is stark. Most
developing countries will not have widespread access to the shots before 2023
at the earliest. Some of these countries—particularly poorer ones with a
young demographic profile—may well lose the motivation to distribute
vaccines, especially if the disease has spread widely or if the associated
costs prove too high.”
AGATHE DEMARAIS, THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT GLOBAL FORECASTING DIRECTOR
Ms Demarais adds that “Vaccine diplomacy will also be an important trend to
keep an eye on. Both Russia and China will seek to adopt a transactional
approach to the delivery of vaccines, using coronavirus shots as a bargaining
chip to advance long-standing interests.”
Finally, Ms Demarais adds that “Vaccines against many diseases, such as
polio or tuberculosis, have been available for decades. However, many people
in poorer countries remain unable to get access to them. What was termed a “
novel coronavirus” only one year ago will be with us for the long term,
alongside the many other diseases that have shaped life over the centuries.”
Download our report “Coronavirus vaccines: expect delays” to find out more.
4.附註、心得、想法︰
※ 40字心得、備註 ※
簡單來說,經濟學人預估何時可以打完的方式是利用
買不買得到疫苗、硬體設備好不好、總人口數、醫療體系完備程度
作為評分要點
所以根據經濟學人的預測,台灣會在世界第一批打完疫苗的國家之內
預計在2021年底前會打到群體免疫
甚至比日本、韓國還要快打到60-70%
再貼一次圖:
https://imgur.com/SR3isNG
以下開放柯韓五毛崩潰經濟學人綠共側翼野雞雜誌
※ 「Live」、「新聞」、「轉錄」此類文章每日發文數總上限為3篇,
自刪與板主刪除,同樣計入額度 ※
作者: swbthj (swbthj)   2021-02-12 11:31:00
野雞雜誌是綠共大外宣
作者: Robben (裸奔)   2021-02-12 11:31:00
大內宣
作者: Pietro (☞金肅πετροσ)   2021-02-12 11:32:00
等台灣媒體轉報吧
作者: miler22020 (小高)   2021-02-12 11:34:00
拜粉要把這雜誌丟了
作者: iamsocool (焚琴煮鶴殺風景)   2021-02-12 11:37:00
日本南韓人口比我們多幾倍耶..
作者: goldenfire (金)   2021-02-12 11:38:00
韓國是台灣兩倍 日本大概5倍
作者: alinalovers (凜冬將至企鵝在天涯)   2021-02-12 11:39:00
美國放在by late 2021我覺得有點太樂觀了
作者: seth582025 (csai)   2021-02-12 11:40:00
台灣優先施打:可憐被白嫖還要做人體實驗台灣施打落後:可悲國外都打完了才輪到你
作者: miler22020 (小高)   2021-02-12 11:41:00
不會 美國現在打老人跟醫護 一天能打150萬開放大眾後 絕對年底前打完
作者: crazypeo45 (死刑)   2021-02-12 11:42:00
這倒是沒什麼問題 如果國外國內疫苗都到位那基本上
作者: goldenfire (金)   2021-02-12 11:42:00
不過經濟學人真的是很友善台灣 country of the year
作者: crazypeo45 (死刑)   2021-02-12 11:43:00
馬上打完 因為14天隔離不可能持續下去
作者: creay222 (ㄚ龍)   2021-02-12 11:44:00
因為台灣人打疫苗比例一直很高所以這樣推估滿合理的
作者: Linerange (Linerange)   2021-02-12 11:45:00
目前Covex476萬+AZ 1000萬+莫德納500萬劑
作者: c1951 (QQ)   2021-02-12 11:47:00
這次又花多少錢買新聞?
作者: dash007 (封鎖之心)   2021-02-12 11:48:00
太樂觀,疫情的穩定、病毒變種快速,會讓民眾傾向先觀望國外施打成效再決定是否打
作者: Pietro (☞金肅πετροσ)   2021-02-12 11:49:00
如果國產成功就有機會達成3000萬劑的群體免疫目標
作者: dash007 (封鎖之心)   2021-02-12 11:50:00
以病毒變異快速的狀況來看,除非各國都穩定下來,否則不能縮短隔離天數
作者: lymyuming (假象)   2021-02-12 11:51:00
這個連綠共蟑螂們都不信,真-野雞雜誌
作者: david624   2021-02-12 11:54:00
柯糞群體崩潰
作者: Linerange (Linerange)   2021-02-12 11:54:00
國產已經訂500萬劑看另一間也成那就夠了
作者: yun0112 (Yun)   2021-02-12 11:55:00
野G雜誌
作者: Yelich (耶律齊)   2021-02-12 11:56:00
綠共自己都沒意願打 這一定假的啦
作者: EggAcme (Egg)   2021-02-12 11:57:00
柯韓粉:大外宣 柯韓粉全家都確診拿去火葬場燒了
作者: fullsorry (tt)   2021-02-12 11:58:00
捧殺?
作者: Koibito (戀人)   2021-02-12 11:58:00
滯台支那賤畜表示不開心
作者: touchbird (新竹彭于晏)   2021-02-12 12:01:00
一堆智障啊 排在美國後面好像多委屈一樣
作者: CavendishJr (花學姐最高)   2021-02-12 12:05:00
應該跟人口有關,AZ跟moderna跟COVAX有按時交貨,台灣就能打50%的人口了啊對了這篇記得拿去八卦爆卦呀
作者: Linerange (Linerange)   2021-02-12 12:07:00
初一宇晴就要上班啦好辛苦
作者: alovethere (UpTrend)   2021-02-12 12:09:00
樂觀
作者: nextbit (本澄清)   2021-02-12 12:10:00
醒醒
作者: ShockG (平淡的生活~~..)   2021-02-12 12:11:00
人口數啊 買得到疫苗就能先打完了
作者: mytaiwan (轉角遇到困難)   2021-02-12 12:12:00
野雞雜誌啦 綠共大內宣:)
作者: hesione (我離開我自己)   2021-02-12 12:14:00
美國最大障礙是很多人不想打
作者: frozenmoon (劉備傳正式出版)   2021-02-12 12:15:00
綠共大內宣
作者: aph860212 (aph860212)   2021-02-12 12:16:00
野雞小報
作者: creay222 (ㄚ龍)   2021-02-12 12:20:00
國家機器動的很厲害 民進黨側翼組織
作者: kipi91718 (正港台灣人)   2021-02-12 12:25:00
綠共J外圍
作者: boogieman (Let the Right One In)   2021-02-12 12:34:00
廣西台獨怎麼還不出來叫兩聲?
作者: airbear (airbear)   2021-02-12 12:51:00
冷門雜誌
作者: stitchris (史迪奇里斯)   2021-02-12 12:59:00
放心 國民黨會代理共產黨出來搞事的
作者: RLH (我們很近也很遠)   2021-02-12 13:04:00
很好啊
作者: cerberi (cerberi)   2021-02-12 13:19:00
作者: gogoegg (--)   2021-02-12 13:19:00
有錢、人口數不要太多 就會快一點打完還有 民眾不會太白目 打死不打疫苗
作者: wx190 (空。)   2021-02-12 13:38:00
有人說台灣防疫很爛還蓋牌
作者: umano (ぎゃああああああああ)   2021-02-12 13:42:00
司機表示
作者: starport (輕鬆看)   2021-02-12 13:44:00
柯憨糞氣哭:明明台灣應該很焦慮啊
作者: djdjdj (加油啦)   2021-02-12 13:54:00
感覺台灣人沒有那麼想打疫苗,但如果說要打疫苗才能出國,可能吸引力更大
作者: LuckyQ (LuckyQ)   2021-02-12 13:56:00
想太多,誰要打疫苗
作者: tomchow76   2021-02-12 14:07:00
挖靠 比日本韓國澳洲還要早打完
作者: stocktonty (前田憂佳)   2021-02-12 14:17:00
誘因如果是“打完出國不用隔離”一定一堆人搶著打
作者: OoJudyoO (安康魚)   2021-02-12 14:19:00
阿伯阿嬸們還是會打啦年輕人想出國也會去打
作者: ms0443001 (kirby)   2021-02-12 14:38:00
啊 台灣就有錢 人口相對其他大國少 國土小當然打得快but柯韓糞一樣崩潰就4惹
作者: akway (生活就是要快樂)   2021-02-12 14:43:00
台灣打疫苗率 一直都比歐美高且有效率 只要有得到疫苗 速度就很快台灣診所多 公衛體系完整 施打速度世界一流
作者: iWatch2 (有錢吃鮸沒錢免吃)   2021-02-12 14:45:00
反正柯韓粉都活在自己幻想的世界 數據啥的不重要還會去頭去尾造謠勒 有夠柯憐的
作者: mainsa (科科)   2021-02-12 14:53:00
台灣醫療體系的水準跟效率屌打世界所有國家 如果有疫苗當然可以最快打完 台灣大量的診所跟地區醫院 甚至偏遠地區也都有衛生所 而且還有全國連線的健保系統 應該沒有國家要打疫苗能比台灣快的
作者: Finarfin (wind)   2021-02-12 14:54:00
跟健保體系有關吧
作者: CCfss (㊣歐巴㊣)   2021-02-12 14:57:00
台灣的戶政和健保系統這些比國外方便讓全民施打。
作者: Finarfin (wind)   2021-02-12 15:25:00
這篇去數字板應該會被刪除 然後昨天柯臭嘴疫苗的新聞在數字板也沒po 不過腦粉依然師傅好棒棒
作者: fromwilda (chupan)   2021-02-12 15:32:00
作者: creulfact (小黑)   2021-02-12 16:12:00
我覺得誘因應該是打了確實有效 然後大家急著出國玩 但這些都需要時間觀察不然出國回來還有關14天換作是我 也不會想出國 然後就不想打疫苗了 因為副作用也還不是很確定
作者: NanaoNaru (七尾奈留)   2021-02-12 16:31:00
等打疫苗有一定進度後4%就會想出國,開始罵14天政策
作者: rronbang (Ron1)   2021-02-12 18:24:00
人少的關係?
作者: s555666 (螺蟲)   2021-02-12 18:54:00
柯屁:......
作者: bryant780417 (bryant780417)   2021-02-12 19:59:00
馬的民進黨又收買媒體了

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